Terrie Walmsley and Peter Minor will be presenting “Supply Chains and Tariff Rates: The Impact of Reversing NAFTA” at the USITC on Thursday, February 23, 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. Room 615P
Global trade models are widely used to examine the impact of trade agreements on the global economy. The data upon which these models are based do not distinguish between trade in intermediate and final goods, or supply chains. This lack of supply chain information has become increasingly relevant in policy analysis as trade in intermediates has grown world-wide. In this paper, we seek to demonstrate how the inclusion of supply chain sourcing and differential tariffs can improve trade policy analysis. To illustrate we examine the North-American Free Trade area, where trade in intermediates has grown exponentially since the signing of the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) more than 20 years ago. With public perception of trade agreements at an all-time low, we examine the impact of a potential rise in US tariffs on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico to MFN rates, with Canada and Mexico retaliating in kind.
ImpactECON announces several new videos examining the Global Supply Chain database and modeling framework.
In the series of videos, a simple trade liberalization shock is implemented on automobiles exported from Japan to Germany using both the GTAP model and the ImpactECON global supply chain model and the results compared. The analysis shows some surprising differences between the two models, and in particular the impact of the trade liberalization on Germany’s domestic production of motor vehicles.
For more information on the ImpactECON global supply chain package, please visit the ImpactECON store.
ImpactECON announces its new Global Supply Chain database and model, along with new labor quantities and updates to the MyGTAP modelling framework. The new products can be used with the GTAP 9a Data Base and can be purchased through the ImpactECON store. Continue reading
ImpactECON Director, Dr. Walmsley presented a paper outlining a new willingness to pay method at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis hosted by the World Bank. The new method was incorporated into a global supply chain model and contrasted with the traditional iceberg method used for examining non-tariff measures. The new willingness to pay method results in larger gains to trade and increased prices through an increase in demand, while the iceberg effect lowers prices through a productivity gain. The new willingness to pay method is documented in working paper #04 of the ImpactECON working paper series.
ImpactECON Director, Dr. Walmsley, presented at the Third High-Level Meeting on Country-Led Knowledge Sharing, held at the World Bank, March 30-31 2016, Washington, DC.
For more information on the event.
ImpactECON, with Copenhagen Economics, was awarded a European Parliament framework contract, for: “Impact Assessment and European Added Value: Development and International Trade Economics.” Award number: EPRS/IMPT/SER/14/013.
ImpactECON introduces new working paper series focused on adapting, testing and transitioning academic work for practical, real world use. The end goal is to improve CGE modeling with emphasis on policy and investment analysis through improvements to data and modeling constructs. Working papers on the MyGTAP model, capital-labor substitution, modeling willingness to pay and the GTAP data base can be found under resources.
Analysis for New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) examines benefits of Trans-Pacific Partnership program for New Zealand and partner economies. The analysis was done in partnership with New Zealand researchers Anna Strutt, University of Waikato, and Allen Rae, Massey University.
Research on potential scenarios for growth in Vietnam used in a Government-World Bank joint report on future growth in Vietnam. The “Vietnam 2035” report, released in Hanoi on February 16, 2016, recommended that Vietnam build a more competitive private sector, support smart urbanization, promote innovation, and take advantage of increasing trade opportunities to enact broad structural reforms. Research conducted by ImpactECON, using a dynamic global CGE model, examined Vietnam’s growth prospects in light of State-owned enterprise reform and the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Read ImpactECON’s report here:
Vietnam 2035 ImpactECON
World Bank Vietnam 2035 Report Delivered. Photo: Chau Doan–World Bank Group
Susan Stone (OECD) describes ImpactECON as a “first-rate, professional organisation that delivers high-quality analysis in a timely, accessible manner. The work done for the OECD met our requirements and exceeded expectations, providing pivotal input to support a broader modelling effort. I will be recommending ImpactECON to others in need of similar expertise.”