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Initial research on the world-wide mandatory closures due to COVID-19 shows significant economic loses in U.S. unemployment. This new research is the first of a series of papers to look at the economic costs of the pandemic and projected recovery.

Walmsley, Terrie and Rose, Adam and Wei, Dan, 2021. “The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States”, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 5, 1-52 (available at:

Walmsley, Terrie and Rose, Adam and Wei, Dan, 2020. “Impacts on the U.S. Macroeconomy of Mandatory Business Closures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic”, Applied Economics Letters (

2020 ASSA Meeting presentation

Dr Walmsley presented a paper on the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality in Pakistan at the 2020 ASSA Meetings in San Diego. The paper was part of a session hosted by the American Committee on Asian Economic Studies and chaired by Calla Wiemer. Continue reading

Impact of US Sections 232 and 301 Trade Actions

ImpactECON releases report on the impact of US trade actions under Sections 232 and 301. The report shows a decline in real GDP of 1.25 percent by 2030, with the greatest losses occurring in production of oil seeds (soybeans), meats (pork and beef), coarse grains (corn, oats, sorghum), transport equipment (other than automobiles); chemicals, rubber, plastics, and pharmaceuticals; textiles; and non-ferrous metals (aluminum).

The full report is available as Working Paper 8.

Impacts of Reversing NAFTA

ImpactECON report on the impacts of reversing NAFTA was cited in the Wall Street Journal on Monday, October 16, 2017.

As concerns rise about the demise of the new NAFTA negotiations, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, CNN and the New York Times have cited ImpactECON’s working paper “Reversing NAFTA: A Supply Chain Perspective“. Here we try to answer a few recently asked questions.

Questions and Answers on the Impact of Reversing NAFTA

What is the impact of reversing NAFTA on the US economy?

Real GDP is estimated to decline by 0.09 percent in the next 2-3 years. Investment is estimated to decline by 1 percent, which means that growth will fall further in the long run.

What is the estimated impact of reversing NAFTA on US employment?

US employment is estimated to decline by 256,000, with many more workers having to relocate to other industries to find jobs. This figure assumes that skilled workers are willing to accept a decline in their wages, if not then US employment could decline by over 1,000,000.

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