ImpactECON announces a new working paper that examines the impact of reversing NAFTA on supply chains and employment using the ImpactECON supply chain database and model.

In July, the USTR announced that the first round of new negotiations on NAFTA will take place between the US, Canada and Mexico on August 16-20, 2017. USTR also released their negotiation objectives.

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Terrie Walmsley and Peter Minor presented “Supply Chains and Tariff Rates: The Impact of Reversing NAFTA” at the USITC on Thursday, February 23.

Since the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entered into force in 1994, production within the three NAFTA countries has become more specialized as foreign direct investment and trade have been allowed to thrive and firms have taken advantage of economies of scale and lower wages in Mexico. Extensive regional supply chains for producing motor vehicles, chemicals, wearing apparel, among other commodities have emerged. Continue reading →

ImpactECON announces several new videos examining the Global Supply Chain database and modeling framework.

In the series of videos, a simple trade liberalization shock is implemented on automobiles exported from Japan to Germany using both the GTAP model and the ImpactECON global supply chain model and the results compared. The analysis shows some surprising differences between the two models, and in particular the impact of the trade liberalization on Germany’s domestic production of motor vehicles.

For more information on the ImpactECON global supply chain package, please visit the ImpactECON store.

ImpactECON Director, Dr. Walmsley presented a paper outlining a new willingness to pay method at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis hosted by the World Bank. The new method was incorporated into a global supply chain model and contrasted with the traditional iceberg method used for examining non-tariff measures. The new willingness to pay method results in larger gains to trade and increased prices through an increase in demand, while the iceberg effect lowers prices through a productivity gain. The new willingness to pay method is documented in working paper #04 of the ImpactECON working paper series.

ImpactECON Director, Dr. Walmsley, presented at the Third High-Level Meeting on Country-Led Knowledge Sharing, held at the World Bank, March 30-31 2016, Washington, DC.

For more information on the event.

ImpactECON, with Copenhagen Economics, was awarded a European Parliament framework contract, for: “Impact Assessment and European Added Value: Development and International Trade Economics.” Award number: EPRS/IMPT/SER/14/013.

ImpactECON introduces new working paper series focused on adapting, testing and transitioning academic work for practical, real world use. The end goal is to improve CGE modeling with emphasis on policy and investment analysis through improvements to data and modeling constructs. Working papers on the MyGTAP model, capital-labor substitution, modeling willingness to pay and the GTAP data base can be found under resources.

Analysis for New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) examines benefits of Trans-Pacific Partnership program for New Zealand and partner economies. The analysis was done in partnership with New Zealand researchers Anna Strutt, University of Waikato, and Allen Rae, Massey University.

• Read MFAT’s summary of the TPP here: MFAT New Zealand Summary of TPP.
• Download original modeling report from MFAT: Economic modeling of TPP MFAT
• or download the report directly from our web page: MFAT Trans-Pacific Partnership Report

Research on potential scenarios for growth in Vietnam used in a Government-World Bank joint report on future growth in Vietnam. The “Vietnam 2035” report, released in Hanoi on February 16, 2016, recommended that Vietnam build a more competitive private sector, support smart urbanization, promote innovation, and take advantage of increasing trade opportunities to enact broad structural reforms. Research conducted by ImpactECON, using a dynamic global CGE model, examined Vietnam’s growth prospects in light of State-owned enterprise reform and the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Read ImpactECON’s report here: Vietnam 2035 ImpactECON

World Bank Vietnam 2035 Report Delivered. Photo: Chau Doan–World Bank Group

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Dr. Walmsley, Director of ImpactECON, was inducted into the GTAP Hall of Fame by the GTAP Advisory Board for ”seminal contributions to CGE analysis of migration and long-run baselines.” Dr. Walmsley was presented with the award at the 2015 Conference on Global Economic Analysis in Melbourne, Australia.